Bristol Scientist Works Out Hit Single Equation
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Tuesday, 20 December 2011 |
Written by Elliott Batte
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Scientists at the University of Bristol have apparently cracked the code that Jedward will forever be searching for – an equation that predicts whether a track will become a hit single.
The equation can reportedly predict the success of a track with a 60% accuracy rate, and analyses a total of 23 different factors such as tempo and timing to work out whether they think a song will become a Top 5 hit. Testing the equation, scientists picked random songs from anywhere in the past 50 years – then ran it through the code to try and predict whether it was a smash hit single or a chart failure.
“The goal was to find out if we could come up with an equation that distinguishes between a hit and something that dangles at the bottom of the charts,” Dr Tijl De Bie explained. “We can expect to get it right in about 60 per cent of cases. It's not perfect.
“Musical tastes evolve, which means our 'hit potential equation' needs to evolve as well. Indeed, we have found the hit potential of a song depends on the era. This may be due to the varying dominant music style, culture and environment.”
Maybe, after a couple more years of work, we’ll see Dr De Bie at the top of the charts with the perfect single!
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